California presently holds the world record surface temperature of 56.7°C (134°F) measured in Death Valley way back in 1913. But as you will come to learn in this article, such outlaying superlative figures (or facts) are essentially meaningless if devoid of context.
Recently, news stories have circulated showing that a series of days in July of 2023 represented the warmest global temperatures on record. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July 3, 4 and 5th, all exceeded previous marks for global average temperature since climatologists began charting these means in 1979.
As of this writing, the global average air temperature of the planet (as measured 2 meters from the ground) was 17.18° C (62.88°F) on July 5th. If that holds, it will beat the previous record set just 2 days before of 17.01°C or 62.62°F.
(November, 2023 updates to this story: After the summer of 2023 ended as the hottest summer on record and 2023 races ahead to become the hottest calendar year on record, November 2022 – November 2023 has already broken the all-time 12-month global heat record. You will find a summary here and more details here. Also, here is a recent article that summarizes our predicament and connects the many facets of global change. Finally, another informative treat appears in this message to you from Professor Jing Liu: “I discovered a new GIS resource hub for climate change visualization and analysis. Check it out – it is pretty cool!” Thank you Jing! Now, we can continue with Rob O’Keefe’s earlier story.)…
This may confuse those expecting to see a much higher reading, say in the neighborhood of 57.42°C (135°F). But remember, the record above is an average of all temperatures everywhere . This record combines temp readings in tropical regions where it is hot all year round. It adds the temps in the midlatitudes, where it is alternately warm or cold depending on the season. And it factors in the teeth-shatteringly cold reaches of the poles which stay cold, or relatively cold, 12 months of the year.
So far, few direct rebuttals from the fossil fuel industry and other climate change deniers have surfaced. But some in the news and amplified by social media have started to shout to El Niño as the culprit. That is misleading at best, malfeasance at worst.
El Niño is a real and recurring phenomenon with the power to drastically alter weather globally in the short-term every few years. But as it is but a part of the overall ocean-atmosphere system, it cannot be singled out as a separate entity. Anthropogenic alteration of the atmosphere affects every aspect of the atmosphere. In this case, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are now helping to drive and intensify ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) events, as well as everything else related to our weather and climate.
This is another reason why it is important to have a broad and deep understanding of the many processes that effect the Earth’s weather and climate before using individual weather events, no matter how dramatic, to make a point on climate.
Case in point …
From time to time in my physical geography or weather and climate classes, I’ll get a student who passionately expresses doubt about climate change. I vividly remember such one student who challenged the notion of a warming world by pointing out that the official record high was recorded over 100 years ago in Death Valley. In this student’s “gotcha” moment, they essentially argued the following: how can the world be getting hotter if the record has not been broken in over a century? On the face of it, it seems a valid question.
But questions like this, with no context or supporting evidence, represent the seeds from which climate denialism germinates.
But getting back to the question at hand, it is all a matter of statistics.
Outliers grab our attention. Record temperatures, on either end of the thermometer, make headlines. But these unusually high or low measurements only indicate conditions at both a specific location and a discrete time. Taken by themselves, such measurements are almost meaningless. That is even true of the recent record. Earth’s climate cannot be defined by single values.
NASA, for instance, has determined that the temperature on Mars has reached 21°C or 70°F, on occasion, since direct observations began in the 1970s. Based on that measure alone, the uneducated might be tempted to assume the red planet has a balmy climate not far off than say Santa Monica. In reality, the mean temperature of Mars is a bone-numbing -80°C (-112°F). Even in the coldest of winters high in the snowbound Sierra Nevada, the Golden State never sees temps that low.
This is why climatologists focus on the mean temperature when making statements about either a specific location’s climate or the global climate in general. Mean temperatures represent the average temperature over a specific period. It is a simple calculation. Sum up all the individual temperature readings and then divide by the number of observations. The standard convention is to have at least 30 years of uninterrupted weather observations/measurements in order to assess climate.
Record temperatures, by contrast, are isolated events that occur sporadically. There may be no rhyme or reason to them. Mean temperatures, on the other hand, reflect long-term trends and patterns. Climate change is characterized not by isolated heat waves but rather by shifts in average temperature over extended periods, often spanning decades or centuries. Analyzing mean temperatures, therefore, allows for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change patterns and their impacts than focusing on a single hot day or string of them.
You may be saying to yourself by now, aren’t the record global atmosphere temps set in July also just outliers? Not exactly. They do not deviate drastically from the mean. They will also be averaged into the data like all other observations, making the overall mean temperature of the Earth rise incrementally, relentlessly, with no thought or care about the worries of humanity.
With that thought, look again at the graph included in the link (and the other graphics in our other links) above and you will see the reality of climate change revealed in a frighteningly short period of time.
But there is also a certain irony I noticed as I wrote this piece comparing weather events with climate, contrasting outliers and means. While Death Valley may continue to hold the record high temperature on Earth for years or even decades to come, the planet’s mean temperature (as measured by day, month or year) is now likely to be broken over and over again. This tragedy is going unnoticed, or outright ignored, by a large swath of the public.
Increasingly, where you live and who represents you is coming to define how you view the problem of anthropogenic climate change.
California has led the way in charting a course that will help humanity avoid the the worst-case scenarios. Here are but 5 ways the Golden State has been and remains a vanguard in combatting global climate change.
- Ambitious Emissions Reduction Targets: California has set aggressive emissions reduction targets, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. These targets have provided a strong policy framework for climate action and have become models for other progressive states and nations.
- Renewable Energy Transition: California has been a pioneer in promoting renewable energy sources. The state has significantly increased its renewable energy capacity, with a focus on solar and wind power. The California Renewables Portfolio Standard requires utilities to procure 60% of their energy from renewable sources by 2030, and the state aims for 100% clean electricity by 2045.
- Cap-and-Trade System: California established the first economy-wide cap-and-trade program in the United States. Under this system, a limit is set on greenhouse gas emissions, and companies must obtain permits (allowances) to cover their emissions. The program has successfully reduced emissions while generating revenue for clean energy investments.
- Energy Efficiency Initiatives: California has implemented rigorous energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances. These standards include requirements for energy-efficient lighting, insulation, and appliances, leading to reduced energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
- Electric Vehicle Promotion: California has been a leader in promoting electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce transportation emissions. The state offers incentives for EV purchases, has established a comprehensive charging infrastructure, and aims to transition to 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035.
** Now it should be noted that data used to calculate global mean temperatures does not represent actual ground measurements for every square inch on the globe. Numerical climate/weather modeling is used to accurately estimate values in areas where no direct measurements exists. Such interpolation techniques do not offer precision but they can be very accurate and often closely reflect actual conditions on the ground.
